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** March 11th 2018 Final Bracketology** Updated 5:40pm ET

Seed

Power

Team

1

1

Virginia

1

2

Villanova

1

3

Kansas

1

4

Xavier

2

5

North Carolina

2

6

Duke

2

7

Cincinnati

2

8

Michigan State

3

9

Purdue

3

10

Tennessee

3

11

Auburn

3

12

Michigan

4

13

West Virginia

4

14

Texas Tech

4

15

Kentucky

4

16

Arizona

5

17

Gonzaga

5

18

Clemson

5

19

Wichita State

5

20

Ohio State

6

21

Houston

6

22

Arkansas

6

23

Miami (Fla.)

6

24

Florida

7

25

Texas A&M

7

26

TCU

7

27

Seton Hall

7

28

Missouri

8

29

Creighton

8

30

Virginia Tech

8

31

NC State

8

32

Nevada

9

33

Rhode Island

9

34

Providence

9

35

Butler

9

36

Florida State

10

37

Texas

10

38

UCLA

10

39

Kansas State

10

40

St. Bonaventure

11a

41

Alabama

11a

42

Oklahoma

11a

43

Southern California

11a

44

Syracuse

11

45

Davidson

11

46

San Diego State

12

47

Loyola-Chicago

12

48

New Mexico State

12

49

South Dakota State

12

50

Buffalo

13

51

Murray State

13

52

Marshall

13

53

College of Charleston

13

54

NC-Greensboro

14

55

Montana

14

56

Bucknell

14

57

Stephen F. Austin

14

58

Wright State

15

59

Iona

15

60

Pennsylvania

15

61

Georgia State

15

62

Lipscomb

16

63

Cal State Fullerton

16

64

Maryland-Baltimore County

16a

65

Radford

16a

66

LIU-Brooklyn

16a

67

Texas Southern

16a

68

North Carolina Central

First Four Out: Arizona St., Louisville, Middle Tennessee, St. Marys

Next Four Out: Marquette, Oklahoma St., Mississippi St., Notre Dame

 

** March 11th 2018 Bracketology** Updated 9:00am ET

Seed

Power

Team

1

1

Virginia

1

2

Villanova

1

3

Kansas

1

4

Xavier

2

5

North Carolina

2

6

Duke

2

7

Cincinnati

2

8

Michigan State

3

9

Tennessee

3

10

Purdue

3

11

Auburn

3

12

Michigan

4

13

West Virginia

4

14

Texas Tech

4

15

Arizona

4

16

Gonzaga

5

17

Clemson

5

18

Wichita State

5

19

Kentucky

5

20

Ohio State

6

21

Houston

6

22

Arkansas

6

23

Miami (Fla.)

6

24

Florida

7

25

Texas A&M

7

26

TCU

7

27

Seton Hall

7

28

Missouri

8

29

Creighton

8

30

Virginia Tech

8

31

NC State

8

32

Rhode Island

9

33

Nevada

9

34

Providence

9

35

Butler

9

36

Florida State

10

37

Texas

10

38

UCLA

10

39

Kansas State

10

40

St. Bonaventure

11

41

Alabama

11a

42

Oklahoma

11a

43

Southern California

11a

44

Syracuse

11a

45

Arizona State

11

46

San Diego State

12

47

Loyola-Chicago

12

48

New Mexico State

12

49

South Dakota State

12

50

Buffalo

13

51

Murray State

13

52

Marshall

13

53

College of Charleston

13

54

NC-Greensboro

14

55

Montana

14

56

Bucknell

14

57

Stephen F. Austin

14

58

Wright State

15

59

Texas-Arlington

15

60

Iona

15

61

Lipscomb

15

62

Harvard

16

63

Cal State Fullerton

16

64

Maryland-Baltimore County

16a

65

Radford

16a

66

LIU-Brooklyn

16a

67

Texas Southern

16a

68

North Carolina Central

First Four Out: Louisville, Middle Tennessee, St. Marys, Marquette

Next Four Out: Oklahoma St., Mississippi St., Notre Dame, Oregon

Comments:

I reserve the right to make tweaks today if I think something seems to be changed. If Davidson wins today, they go in for Arizona State. At this point I feel pretty good about the field except for the final 2 spots. I have Syracuse and Arizona State in, but would certainly not be shocked to see Middle Tennessee, St. Mary’s, or Louisville in over those. I think the final 2 at-large spots will be 2 of those 5 teams. I MTSU and St. Marys just don’t have enough quality wins and the committee has not rewarded mid-majors over Power 5 schools in recent years, and I like Syracuse and ASU’s overall profile better then Louisville’s which is just too bland. These 5 teams will be pulling hard for Rhode Island today. If URI wins, then I think only one of those 5 teams get in.

 

** March 10th 2018 Bracketology** Updated 7:30am ET

Seed

Power

Team

1

1

Virginia

1

2

Villanova

1

3

Kansas

1

4

Xavier

2

5

North Carolina

2

6

Duke

2

7

Cincinnati

2

8

Michigan State

3

9

Tennessee

3

10

Purdue

3

11

Auburn

3

12

Michigan

4

13

West Virginia

4

14

Texas Tech

4

15

Arizona

4

16

Gonzaga

5

17

Clemson

5

18

Wichita State

5

19

Kentucky

5

20

Ohio State

6

21

Miami (Fla.)

6

22

Houston

6

23

Arkansas

6

24

Florida

7

25

Texas A&M

7

26

Seton Hall

7

27

TCU

7

28

Creighton

8

29

Missouri

8

30

Virginia Tech

8

31

NC State

8

32

Nevada

9

33

Rhode Island

9

34

Providence

9

35

Florida State

9

36

Butler

10

37

Texas

10

38

Kansas State

10

39

UCLA

10

40

St. Bonaventure

11

41

Alabama

11a

42

Oklahoma

11a

43

Southern California

11a

44

Arizona State

11a

45

Syracuse

11

46

San Diego State

12

47

Loyola-Chicago

12

48

Western Kentucky

12

49

New Mexico State

12

50

South Dakota State

13

51

Buffalo

13

52

Murray State

13

53

College of Charleston

13

54

Vermont

14

55

NC-Greensboro

14

56

Louisiana

14

57

Montana

14

58

UC Irvine

15

59

Bucknell

15

60

Wright State

15

61

Iona

15

62

Lipscomb

16

63

Harvard

16

64

Radford

16a

65

Stephen F. Austin

16a

66

LIU-Brooklyn

16a

67

Hampton

16a

68

Texas Southern

First Four Out: Louisville, Middle Tennessee, St. Marys, Marquette

Next Four Out: Oklahoma St., Mississippi St., Notre Dame, Oregon

Comments:

-          Nevada lost in the MWS conference tournament and that knocks Louisville out of my field.

-          Even with a UNC win tonight over Virginia, in my bracket at least, Xavier will keep a #1 seed.

-          The bubble drama today will be watching to see if there are any upsets in the AAC and A-10. Also USC could erase any doubt obviously with a win over Arizona today.

** March 9th 2018 Bracketology** Updated 11:00am ET

 

Seed

Power

Team

1

1

Virginia

1

2

Xavier

1

3

Villanova

1

4

Kansas

2

5

Duke

2

6

North Carolina

2

7

Cincinnati

2

8

Auburn

3

9

Tennessee

3

10

Michigan State

3

11

Purdue

3

12

Michigan

4

13

Texas Tech

4

14

Arizona

4

15

Gonzaga

4

16

Clemson

5

17

West Virginia

5

18

Wichita State

5

19

Kentucky

5

20

Ohio State

6

21

Florida

6

22

Miami (Fla.)

6

23

Houston

6

24

Texas A&M

7

25

Arkansas

7

26

Seton Hall

7

27

TCU

7

28

Nevada

8

29

Rhode Island

8

30

Creighton

8

31

Missouri

8

32

Virginia Tech

9

33

NC State

9

34

Florida State

9

35

UCLA

9

36

Butler

10

37

Texas

10

38

Kansas State

10

39

Providence

10

40

St. Bonaventure

11

41

Oklahoma

11

42

Southern California

11a

43

Arizona State

11a

44

Syracuse

11a

45

Louisville

11a

46

Alabama

    12

47

Loyola-Chicago

12

48

Western Kentucky

12

49

New Mexico State

12

50

South Dakota State

13

51

Buffalo

13

52

Murray State

13

53

College of Charleston

13

54

Vermont

14

55

NC-Greensboro

14

56

Louisiana

14

57

Montana

14

58

UC Davis

15

59

Bucknell

15

60

Wright State

15

61

Iona

15

62

Lipscomb

16

63

Harvard

16

64

Radford

16a

65

Nicholls State

16a

66

LIU-Brooklyn

16a

67

Hampton

16a

68

Texas Southern

First Four Out: Middle Tennessee, St. Marys, Marquette, Oklahoma St.

Next Four Out: Mississippi St., Notre Dame, Oregon, Georgia

Comments:

A wild day yesterday did lead to some bracket re-shuffling. Middle Tennessee has fallen out after it loss to So. Miss yesterday who has an RPI of greater than 200. Alabama moved in to the last spot after their win over Texas A&M, but they MUST beat Auburn today to keep their spot in my field. Meaning that MTSU could move back in to the field tomorrow.

The bubble is tougher this year with St. Mary’s and MTSU in the mix. It is always difficult to gauge year to year if the committee will favor strong mid-majors over mediocre power 5 teams. The last few years the committee has seemed to favor the power 5 schools. Thus I think St. Mary’s really has no shot of getting in considering they didn’t win the WCC reg season title and have only one quality win on their resume. MTSU has 0 wins over at-large worthy teams, but did win their conference reg season title and have a very good NC SOS. Thus they have a shot.

Overall, I feel pretty good about the teams in the field down to the last 3. If I were Louisville, Syracuse, Alabama, MTSU, St. Mary’s, and probably Marquette I would be sweating bullets on Selection Sunday. I think Arizona St. and Oklahoma are in the field, although Arizona St. should be nervous. The committee has re-emphasized in interviews that they look at the complete body of work with no recency bias, therefore Oklahoma should be ok.

 

** March 8th 2018 Bracketology** Updated 11:30am ET

Seed

Power

Team

1

1

Virginia

1

2

Xavier

1

3

Villanova

1

4

Kansas

2

5

Duke

2

6

Auburn

2

7

North Carolina

2

8

Cincinnati

3

9

Purdue

3

10

Tennessee

3

11

Michigan State

3

12

Michigan

4

13

Wichita State

4

14

Texas Tech

4

15

Arizona

4

16

Gonzaga

5

17

Clemson

5

18

West Virginia

5

19

Kentucky

5

20

Ohio State

6

21

Miami (Fla.)

6

22

Florida

6

23

Houston

6

24

Texas A&M

7

25

Seton Hall

7

26

Arkansas

7

27

TCU

7

28

Nevada

8

29

Missouri

8

30

Creighton

8

31

Rhode Island

8

32

Virginia Tech

9

33

NC State

9

34

Florida State

9

35

St. Bonaventure

9

36

Texas

10

37

Oklahoma

10

38

UCLA

10

39

Butler

10

40

Southern California

11

41

Kansas State

11

42

Middle Tennessee

11

43

Arizona State

11a

44

Syracuse

11a

45

Louisville

12a

46

Saint Mary's

12a

47

Providence

12

48

Loyola-Chicago

12

49

New Mexico State

12

50

South Dakota State

13

51

Buffalo

13

52

Murray State

13

53

College of Charleston

13

54

Vermont

14

55

NC-Greensboro

14

56

Louisiana

14

57

Montana

14

58

UC Davis

15

59

Bucknell

15

60

Wright State

15

61

Iona

15

62

Lipscomb

16

63

Harvard

16

64

Radford

16a

65

Nicholls State

16a

66

LIU-Brooklyn

16a

67

Hampton

16a

68

Texas Southern

First Four Out: Marquette, Oklahoma St., Notre Dame, Utah

Next Four Out: Baylor, Mississippi St., Washington, Boise St.

Comments:

There were a lot of losses in the middle of the bracket yesterday. And I have seen as a rule over the years is that usually, the committee doesn’t seem to make massive changes to the seedings based off of conf tournament performance.  Therefore, despite all the losses yesterday, there were not massive changes in the seedings for many teams.

Tons of important games today. Great opportunities for Marquette, Oklahoma St., Notre Dame to move into the field with wins. St. Mary’s is in a very precarious position now.

** March 7th 2018 Bracketology** Updated 8:30am ET

Seed

Power

Team

1

1

Virginia

1

2

Xavier

1

3

Villanova

1

4

Kansas

2

5

Duke

2

6

Auburn

2

7

Cincinnati

2

8

Purdue

3

9

North Carolina

3

10

Tennessee

3

11

Michigan State

3

12

Michigan

4

13

Wichita State

4

14

Texas Tech

4

15

Arizona

4

16

Gonzaga

5

17

Clemson

5

18

West Virginia

5

19

Kentucky

5

20

Ohio State

6

21

Miami (Fla.)

6

22

Florida

6

23

Houston

6

24

Texas A&M

7

25

Seton Hall

7

26

Arkansas

7

27

TCU

7

28

Nevada

8

29

Virginia Tech

8

30

Missouri

8

31

Creighton

8

32

Rhode Island

9

33

NC State

9

34

Florida State

9

35

Middle Tennessee

9

36

Oklahoma

10

37

St. Bonaventure

10

38

Arizona State

10

39

Butler

10

40

Southern California

11

41

Kansas State

11

42

Saint Mary's

11

43

Syracuse

11a

44

Texas

11a

45

UCLA

12a

46

Louisville

12a

47

Providence

12

48

Loyola-Chicago

12

49

New Mexico State

12

50

South Dakota State

13

51

Buffalo

13

52

Murray State

13

53

College of Charleston

13

54

Vermont

14

55

NC-Greensboro

14

56

Louisiana

14

57

Montana

14

58

UC Davis

15

59

Bucknell

15

60

Wright State

15

61

Iona

15

62

Lipscomb

16

63

Harvard

16

64

Radford

16a

65

Nicholls State

16a

66

LIU-Brooklyn

16a

67

Hampton

16a

68

Texas Southern

First Four Out: Marquette, Utah, Washington, Baylor

Next Four Out: Oklahoma St, Miss St, Notre Dame, Boise St.

Comments:

Important Games Today

Louisville vs Florida State – FSU is safe, however Louisville most likely needs to win this game to stay in the field.

Arizona State vs Colorado – ASU may survive and stay in the field even with a loss, but a loss here will only cause the committee to look even closer at their resume which outside of the neutral court win over Xavier and the road win at Kansas, largely devoid of quality.

Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State – Bedlam in the Big 12 tournament has some high stakes. Like Arizona State, Oklahoma has done enough in my opinion to be locked into the bracket, but a loss here will see their seed continue to plummet. Oklahoma State has some great wins, all 13 losses in tier ½, but has an RPI of 89 and a NC SOS of 283. Realistically, OSU probably needs to win here and then upset Kansas for a third time tomorrow to make the field.

Notre Dame vs Virginia Tech – Everyone’s new darling Notre Dame faces a must win tonight against Virginia Tech. The Irish must win this game to have any chance. A win here will at least have them in the conversation for a bid assuming they don’t get blitzed by Duke Thursday. But they may still to beat Duke to get a bid.

Oregon State vs Washington – Do or die for Washington. A loss likely ends their at-large chances.

Syracuse vs North Carolina – Syracuse may have done enough now to get a bid. But they are close enough to the edge that they should take no chances and lock it in for sure with a win tonight against UNC. A loss means an uncomfortable wait on Selection Sunday.

Iowa State vs Texas – Texas needs to win here to keep their bid most likely. A loss would put the Longhorns at 18-14. 4 games above .500 is the traditional worst record to get an at-large bid. And Texas’s resume has some good wins (5 tier 1 wins) but their SOS is good at 15 but their NC SOS I only 83. Meaning I don’t think this resume has enough special to withstand a loss in this setting and keep their bid.

Depaul vs Marquette – Marquette is my first team out and they are right there for a bid. They obviously must beat Depaul to have any chance. They may also need to beat Villanova Thursday to lock up a bid.

** March 6th 2018 Bracketology** Updated 7:30am ET

Seed

Power

Team

1

1

Virginia

1

2

Xavier

1

3

Villanova

1

4

Kansas

2

5

Duke

2

6

Auburn

2

7

Cincinnati

2

8

Purdue

3

9

North Carolina

3

10

Michigan State

3

11

Tennessee

3

12

Michigan

4

13

Wichita State

4

14

Texas Tech

4

15

Arizona

4

16

Gonzaga

5

17

Clemson

5

18

West Virginia

5

19

Kentucky

5

20

Ohio State

6

21

Miami (Fla.)

6

22

Florida

6

23

Houston

6

24

Texas A&M

7

25

Seton Hall

7

26

Arkansas

7

27

TCU

7

28

Nevada

8

29

Virginia Tech

8

30

Missouri

8

31

Creighton

8

32

Rhode Island

9

33

NC State

9

34

Florida State

9

35

Middle Tennessee

9

36

Oklahoma

10

37

St. Bonaventure

10

38

Arizona State

10

39

Butler

10

40

Southern California

11

41

Kansas State

11

42

Saint Mary's

11

43

Syracuse

11a

44

Texas

11a

45

UCLA

12a

46

Louisville

12a

47

Providence

12

48

Loyola-Chicago

12

49

New Mexico State

12

50

Buffalo

13

51

South Dakota State

13

52

Northeastern

13

53

Murray State

13

54

Vermont

14

55

NC-Greensboro

14

56

Louisiana

14

57

Montana

14

58

UC Davis

15

59

Bucknell

15

60

Wright State