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** February 20th Bracketology** Updated 3:30pm ET


Random Comments:

- Lots of seed shuffling. Two new teams in the at-large field today Marquette and Georgia Tech, with Syracuse and Providence falling out.

- I moved UNC into the last 1 seed ahead of Baylor. With UNC/Duke/Louisville all playing very well right now, I think whoever emerges from those 3 teams as the dominant ACC team will likely get a 1 seed.

 

First Four Out: Syracuse, Providence, Rhode Island, Wake Forest

Next Four Out: Ole Miss, Alabama, Pittsurgh, Clemson

Seed

Power

Team

1

1

Villanova

1

2

Kansas

1

3

Gonzaga

1

4

North Carolina

2

5

Baylor

2

6

Louisville

2

7

Oregon

2

8

Duke

3

9

Arizona

3

10

Kentucky

3

11

Florida

3

12

UCLA

4

13

Florida State

4

14

West Virginia

4

15

Purdue

4

16

Butler

5

17

Cincinnati

5

18

Virginia

5

19

Notre Dame

5

20

Minnesota

6

21

Creighton

6

22

Wisconsin

6

23

Maryland

6

24

St. Mary's

7

25

SMU

7

26

Northwestern

7

27

Xavier

7

28

South Carolina

8

29

Virginia Tech

8

30

Iowa State

8

31

Oklahoma State

8

32

VCU

9

33

Southern California

9

34

Miami (Fla.)

9

35

Kansas State

9

36

Michigan State

10

37

Michigan

10

38

Arkansas

10

39

Dayton

10

40

TCU

11

41

Seton Hall

11a

42

California

11a

43

Wichita State

11a

44

Georgia Tech

11a

45

Marquette

11

46

Middle Tennessee

12

47

Nevada

12

48

UNC-Wilmington

12

49

Illinois State

12

50

Texas-Arlington

13

51

Monmouth

13

52

Valparaiso

13

53

Akron

13

54

Belmont

14

55

Vermont

14

56

Florida Gulf Coast

14

57

Princeton

14

58

UNC-Asheville

15

59

Bucknell

15

60

Cal State Bakersfield

15

61

Furman

15

62

North Dakota State

16

63

Texas Southern

16

64

New Orleans

16a

65

UC Irvine

16a

66

North Dakota

16a

67

Mount St. Mary's

16a

68

North Carolina Central

 

 

** February 17th Bracketology** Updated 11am ET


Random Comments:

-    Only some minor changes today.

-        Providence slides is my last team in. Providence has 3 bad losses (vs St. Johns (118), @ BC (203), @ Depaul (236) which are a big anchor. They also have no top 50 road wins. But they do have home wins over Butler and Xavier and a total of 3 top 50 RPI wins to go with an RPI of 57. The bad losses are a problem, but the upper bubble right now is ripe with teams that have a poor overall record (Georgia Tech, Clemson, Georgia), high RPIs (Marquette, Texas Tech, Georgia Tech), or lack quality wins (Wake Forest, Ole Miss). Providence seemed the lesser of multiple evils at the moment.

 

First Four Out: Marquette, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Wake Forest

Next Four Out: Ole Miss, Georgia, Texas Tech, Indiana

Seed

Power

Team

1

1

Villanova

1

2

Kansas

1

3

Gonzaga

1

4

Baylor

2

5

North Carolina

2

6

Louisville

2

7

Oregon

2

8

Florida State

3

9

Duke

3

10

Arizona

3

11

Kentucky

3

12

Florida

4

13

UCLA

4

14

Virginia

4

15

West Virginia

4

16

Notre Dame

5

17

Maryland

5

18

Purdue

5

19

Butler

5

20

Cincinnati

6

21

Creighton

6

22

Minnesota

6

23

Wisconsin

6

24

SMU

7

25

South Carolina

7

26

Xavier

7

27

Northwestern

7

28

St. Mary's

8

29

Virginia Tech

8

30

Southern California

8

31

Iowa State

8

32

Oklahoma State

9

33

Michigan State

9

34

Michigan

9

35

Miami (Fla.)

9

36

Kansas State

10

37

VCU

10

38

Seton Hall

10

39

California

10

40

Arkansas

11

41

Dayton

11a

42

TCU

11a

43

Syracuse

11a

44

Wichita State

11a

45

Providence

11

46

Nevada

12

47

Middle Tennessee

12

48

UNC-Wilmington

12

49

Valparaiso

12

50

Illinois State

13

51

Monmouth

13

52

Akron

13

53

Belmont

13

54

Vermont

14

55

Florida Gulf Coast

14

56

Texas-Arlington

14

57

Princeton

14

58

UNC-Asheville

15

59

Bucknell

15

60

Cal State Bakersfield

15

61

Furman

15

62

North Dakota State

16

63

Texas Southern

16

64

New Orleans

16a

65

UC Irvine

16a

66

Weber State

16a

67

Mount St. Mary's

16a

68

North Carolina Central

 

 

** February 16th Bracketology** Updated 11am ET


Random Comments:

-        Providence slides in as my last team in today with their win over Xavier last night. Providence has 3 bad losses (vs St. Johns (118), @ BC (203), @ Depaul (236) which are a big anchor. They also have no top 50 road wins. But they do have home wins over Butler and Xavier and a total of 3 top 50 RPI wins to go with an RPI of 57. The bad losses are a problem, but the upper bubble right now is ripe with teams that have a poor overall record (Georgia Tech, Clemson, Georgia), high RPIs (Marquette, Texas Tech, Georgia Tech), or lack quality wins (Wake Forest, Ole Miss). Providence seemed the lesser of multiple evils at the moment.

 

First Four Out: Marquette, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Wake Forest

Next Four Out: Ole Miss, Georgia, Texas Tech, Indiana

Seed

Power

Team

1

1

Villanova

1

2

Kansas

1

3

Gonzaga

1

4

Baylor

2

5

North Carolina

2

6

Louisville

2

7

Oregon

2

8

Florida State

3

9

Duke

3

10

Arizona

3

11

Kentucky

3

12

Florida

4

13

West Virginia

4

14

UCLA

4

15

Virginia

4

16

Notre Dame

5

17

Maryland

5

18

Purdue

5

19

Butler

5

20

Cincinnati

6

21

Wisconsin

6

22

Creighton

6

23

Minnesota

6

24

SMU

7

25

South Carolina

7

26

Xavier

7

27

Northwestern

7

28

Virginia Tech

8

29

Southern California

8

30

St. Mary's

8

31

Iowa State

8

32

Oklahoma State

9

33

Michigan State

9

34

Miami (Fla.)

9

35

Michigan

9

36

Kansas State

10

37

VCU

10

38

Seton Hall

10

39

California

10

40

Arkansas

11

41

Dayton

11a

42

TCU

11a

43

Syracuse

11a

44

Wichita State

11a

45

Providence

11

46

Nevada

12

47

Middle Tennessee

12

48

UNC-Wilmington

12

49

Valparaiso

12

50

Illinois State

13

51

Monmouth

13

52

Akron

13

53

Belmont

13

54

Vermont

14

55

Florida Gulf Coast

14

56

Texas-Arlington

14

57

Princeton

14

58

UNC-Asheville

15

59

Bucknell

15

60

Cal State Bakersfield

15

61

Furman

15

62

North Dakota State

16

63

Texas Southern

16

64

New Orleans

16a

65

Weber State

16a

66

Mount St. Mary's

16a

67

North Carolina Central

16a

68

UC Davis

 

 

** February 14th Bracketology** Updated 9am ET


Random Comments:

-        No major changes in the bracket today. Syracuse did slide a spot down the overall rankings.

-     In looking back at my notes from last years bracket, one of the things that stood out is how the committee seems to value Top 50 wins more than bad losses.

-     For instance, Syracuse looks to have a similar profile to last year. The Orange made the field in 2016 6 teams in with 5 top 50 wins, 8 top 100 wins, but 3 sub 100 losses and an RPI of 72. Syracuse so far this year with 4 games left, 4 top 50 wins, 7 top 100 wins, and 3 losses outside the top 100 and an RPI of 76. Cuse had a NC SOS of 115 compared to this yearÕs 151. Very similar resume which got them in last year. SyracuseÕs overall record this year is 16-11 compared to 19-13 last year. Cuse have @ Georgia Tech, Duke, @ Louisville, and Georgia Tech left. A 2-2 finish would have them at 18-13 heading to the ACC tournament, where they may have to win 1 to make the field although it is all relative of course to the rest of the country. A 3-1 finish would likely be a lock.

-     That same principal should make Wichita St. and California nervous as well as Wake Forest. Wichita St and Cal have 1 top 50 win and Wake has 0. All of those teamÕs losses though are inside the RPI top 100. It will be interesting to see if the committee once again places the emphasis on quality wins over say an acceptable (3 or so) number of bad losses.

 

First Four Out: Marquette, Wake Forest, Indiana, Ole Miss

Next Four Out: Rhode Island, Georgetown, Tennessee, Clemson

Seed

Power

Team

1

1

Villanova

1

2

Kansas

1

3

Gonzaga

1

4

Baylor

2

5

North Carolina

2

6

Louisville

2

7

Oregon

2

8

Florida State

3

9

Arizona

3

10

Kentucky

3

11

Florida

3

12

Virginia

4

13

West Virginia

4

14

UCLA

4

15

Duke

4

16

Notre Dame

5

17

Creighton

5

18

Purdue

5

19

Butler

5

20

Cincinnati

6

21

Maryland

6

22

South Carolina

6

23

Wisconsin

6

24

Xavier

7

25

SMU

7

26

Minnesota

7

27

Northwestern

7

28

Virginia Tech

8

29

Southern California

8

30

St. Mary's

8

31

Iowa State

8

32

Oklahoma State

9

33

Michigan

9

34

Kansas State

9

35

Miami (Fla.)

9

36

Michigan State

10

37

TCU

10

38

Dayton

10

39

VCU

10

40

California

11

41

Syracuse

11a

42

Seton Hall

11a

43

Wichita State

11a

44

Arkansas

11a

45

Georgia Tech

11

46

Boise State

12

47

Middle Tennessee

12

48

UNC-Wilmington

12

49

Valparaiso

12

50

Illinois State

13

51

Monmouth

13

52

Akron

13

53

Belmont

13

54

Vermont

14

55

Florida Gulf Coast

14

56

Texas-Arlington

14

57

Princeton

14

58

UNC-Asheville

15

59

Bucknell

15

60

Cal State Bakersfield

15

61

North Dakota State

15

62

Furman

16

63

Texas Southern

16

64

New Orleans

16a

65

Weber State

16a

66

Mount St. Mary's

16a

67

North Carolina Central

16a

68

UC Davis

 

** February 13th Bracketology** Updated 12pm ET


Random Comments:

-        First off, I had 14 of the 16 teams the committee released Saturday in my top 16, I had Cincinnati and Wisconsin in, but the committee had Butler and Florida instead.

-     I was surprised the committee had Gonzaga as the 4th overall team and also a little surprised Florida was valued as highly as they were.

-    My bracket was adjusted a bit from Friday to match the committeeÕs top 16 pre games of this weekend.

-    It will be interesting to see how the fortunes of Georgia Tech, Marquette, and Indiana play out as they all have a collection of good wins but RPIÕs of 78, 84, and 93 respectively. The lowest RPI to get an at-large bid was 72 from Syracuse last year.

First Four Out: Marquette, Wake Forest, Indiana, Ole Miss

Next Four Out: Georgetown, Tennessee, Clemson, Auburn

Seed

Power

Team

1

1

Villanova

1

2

Kansas

1

3

Gonzaga

1

4

Baylor

2

5

North Carolina

2

6

Louisville

2

7

Oregon

2

8

Florida State

3

9

Arizona

3

10

Kentucky

3

11

Florida

3

12

Virginia

4

13

West Virginia

4

14

UCLA

4

15

Duke

4

16

Notre Dame

5

17

Creighton

5

18

Purdue

5

19

Butler

5

20

Cincinnati

6

21

Maryland

6

22

South Carolina

6

23

Wisconsin

6

24

Xavier

7

25

SMU

7

26

Minnesota

7

27

Northwestern

7

28

Virginia Tech

8

29

Southern California

8

30

St. Mary's

8

31

Iowa State

8

32

Oklahoma State

9

33

Michigan

9

34

Kansas State

9

35

Miami (Fla.)

9

36

Michigan State

10

37

TCU

10

38

Dayton

10

39

VCU

10

40

Syracuse

11

41

California

11a

42

Seton Hall

11a

43

Wichita State

11a

44

Arkansas

11a

45

Georgia Tech

11

46

Boise State

12

47

Middle Tennessee

12

48

UNC-Wilmington

12

49

Valparaiso

12

50

Illinois State

13

51

Monmouth

13

52

Akron

13

53

Belmont

13

54

Florida Gulf Coast

14

55

Vermont

14

56

Princeton

14

57

UNC-Asheville

14

58

Arkansas State

15

59

Bucknell

15

60

Cal State Bakersfield

15

61

North Dakota State

15

62

Furman

16

63

Texas Southern

16

64

New Orleans

16a

65

Weber State

16a

66

Mount St. Mary's

16a

67

UC Davis

16a

68

North Carolina Central

 

** February 10th Bracketology** Updated 12pm ET


Random Comments:

-       The top 16 seeds will be released tomorrow and it will be very interesting to see how the committee sorts through the teams particularly the ACC, PAC-12, and Big 10 teams.

-       No at-large team has ever made the field with a record worse than 4 games above .500. So keep that in mind with my bracket. I slid Clemson out this round because of that as I think we are approaching the time of year where even teams with decent resumes, have to have a good enough overall record to justify their spot in the field. Clemson, Tennessee, and Georgia Tech are only 3 games above .500 against D1 teams. So even though those teams have some great wins and good power numbers, they have to get their overall record up somehow to get a spot in the field, history says.

-       Wichita St. moved into my bracket today. They only have 1 win inside the RPI top 50 or 100 for that matter, and that was against Illinois St. All 4 of their losses though are inside the top 50. If say Wichita St. wins out but loses to Illinois St. in the MVC final, they will be a very interesting case for the committee and a difficult call. I think any loss to a team not Illinois St., would doom them to the NIT without winning the MVC tournament.

-       The top 7 teams that just missed the cut and 8 of the top 10 are from the ACC and SEC. Those conference tournaments are going to be huge for the bubble this year.

-       Also as just a reminder of how much things can change. 1 year ago today Iowa was #3 on my S curve and a 1 seed. They ended up #29 on the S Curve and an 8 seed.

-        

First Four Out: Wake Forest, Clemson, Arkansas, Tennessee

Next Four Out: Georgia Tech, Auburn, Alabama, Rhode Island

Seed

Power

Team

1

1

Gonzaga

1

2

Villanova

1

3

Kansas

1

4

Baylor

2

5

Florida State

2

6

Arizona

2

7

North Carolina

2

8

Virginia

3

9

Louisville

3

10

Kentucky

3

11

Cincinnati

3

12

UCLA

4

13

Duke

4

14

Oregon

4

15

Wisconsin

4

16

West Virginia

5

17

Purdue

5

18

Florida

5

19

Butler

5

20

Creighton

6

21

Notre Dame

6

22

Xavier

6

23

St. Mary's

6

24

South Carolina

7

25

Maryland

7

26

Minnesota

7

27

Southern California

7

28

SMU

8

29

Northwestern

8

30

Kansas State

8

31

Miami (Fla.)

8

32

Iowa State

9

33

Seton Hall

9

34

Virginia Tech

9

35

Oklahoma State

9

36

TCU

10

37

Syracuse

10

38

Marquette

10

39

California

10

40

Dayton

11a

41

Michigan

11a

42

Michigan State

11

43

VCU

11a

44

Indiana

11a

45

Wichita State

11

46

Middle Tennessee

12

47

Nevada

12

48

UNC-Wilmington

12

49

Valparaiso

12

50

Illinois State

13

51

Monmouth

13

52

New Mexico State

13

53

Belmont

13

54

Akron

14

55

Florida Gulf Coast

14

56

Vermont

14

57

Princeton

14

58

Arkansas State

15

59

UNC-Asheville

15

60

Bucknell

15

61

North Dakota State

15

62

Furman

16

63

Texas Southern

16

64

New Orleans

16a

65

Weber State

16a

66

Mount St. Mary's

16a

67

UC Davis

16a

68

North Carolina Central

 

** February 8th Bracketology** Updated 1pm ET
Comments:
First Four Out: Wake Forest, Arkansas, Georgia Tech, Auburn
Next Four Out: Alabama, Rhode Island, Ohio St., Ole Miss

 


Seed

Power

Team (Red Teams are projected automatic bids)

1

1

Gonzaga

1

2

Villanova

1

3

Kansas

1

4

Baylor

2

5

North Carolina

2

6

Florida State

2

7

Arizona

2

8

Virginia

3

9

Louisville

3

10

Kentucky

3

11

Cincinnati

3

12

Oregon

4

13

Wisconsin

4

14

UCLA

4

15

Duke

4

16

Florida

5

17

Purdue

5

18

West Virginia

5

19

Butler

5

20

Creighton

6

21

Notre Dame

6

22

South Carolina

6

23

Xavier

6

24

St. Mary's

7

25

Maryland

7

26

Minnesota

7

27

Southern California

7

28

SMU

8

29

Northwestern

8

30

Virginia Tech

8

31

Kansas State

8

32

Iowa State

9

33

Oklahoma State

9

34

Seton Hall

9

35

Marquette

9

36

Michigan State

10

37

TCU

10

38

Miami (Fla.)

10

39

California

10

40

Dayton

11a

41

Syracuse

11a

42

Clemson

11a

43

Indiana

11a

44

Michigan

11

45

VCU

11

46

Middle Tennessee

12

47

UNC-Wilmington

12

48

Nevada

12

49

Valparaiso

12

50

Illinois State

13

51

Monmouth

13

52

New Mexico State

13

53

Florida Gulf Coast

13

54

Akron

14

55

Vermont

14

56

Belmont

14

57

Arkansas State

14

58

Princeton

15

59

Bucknell

15

60

UNC-Asheville

15

61

North Dakota State

15

62

Texas Southern

16

63

Furman

16

64

Sam Houston State

16a

65

Weber State

16a

66

Mount St. Mary's

16a

67

UC Davis

16a

68

North Carolina Central